Economic update
Fiscal reforms
Following the progress made
over the past year, the European
Commission, in its Autumn Report,
significantly revised its spring
forecasts in relation to the economy
of Cyprus as set out in Table1 below.
Table 1
Source: European Commission (9 November 2016)
Real GDP growth is expected
to reach 2.5% in 2017 and then
moderate gradually to 2.3% by
2018. An important factor taken
into account by the European
Commission was the improved
outlook for investment based on the
stabilizing housing market in Cyprus.
A second significant factor was the
increase in private consumption.
The European Commission noted
the growth in the tourism sector
and expects it to continue, albeit
at a slower pace, contributing to
job creation while exerting upward
pressure on wages and unit labour
costs.
HICP (Harmonised Index of
Consumer Prices) inflation is
expected to increase and return to
positive territory in 2017, although
it is expected to remain moderate
as profit margins are forecast to
narrow further, thus limiting the pass-
through of higher unit labour costs
to consumer prices. As a result, less
Cypriot economy
As of 31st of March 2016, Cyprus
has successfully completed its
Economic Adjustment Programme,
three years after its commencement.
Cyprus benefited from the Economic
Adjustment Programme, during
which it emerged from recession,
stabilised its financial sector, and
consolidated its public finances.
Cyprus’ economy emerged from
recession in 2015, with real GDP
growth reaching 1,6%. In 2015,
nominal spending by households
stabilised but declining consumer
prices allowed households to
consume more in real terms,
providing a significant boost to real
GDP growth.
The Cypriot banking system in
particular has undergone a deep
transformation. The ground covered
since March 2013 has been
significant and the reform measures,
which have been executed or are
underway, are essential to restoring
the Cypriot financial system to
viability.
The Cypriot economy has been
steadily recovering and economic
activity in 2016 has been better
than initially projected, whereas
fiscal targets have been met with
substantial margins. The economy of
Cyprus expanded by 2,9% year-on-
year in the third quarter of 2016,
compared to 2,7% in the previous
quarter.
The restoration of the banking
system continues and debt
restructuring is picking up. However,
the percentage of non-performing
facilities (“NPFs”) remains high
and the pace of lending is subdued,
despite the fact that demand for
loans is slowly increasing.
support for real GDP growth will be
provided.
Meanwhile, the “more pronounced”
domestic private demand growth is
expected to slow down owing to the
ongoing deleveraging and continued
loan restructuring efforts by banks
combined with weak lending
activities. Consequently, investments
will continue having to be financed
mainly from retained profits and
savings.
On the upside, the European
Commission stated that consumption
could be enhanced and FDI could
perform better than anticipated as
a result of the lagged effects from
declining energy prices and stronger
labour incomes. Moreover, the
strong performance in the tourism
sector could continue without losing
its momentum.
On the other hand, the report raises
the challenges and riks stemming
from Brexit which can turn out to
impact Cyprus’ economic outlook.
Nevertheless, as a member of the
commonwealth, Cyprus maintains
an advantage over other EU member
states in repelling any negative
effects from the referendum.
Additionally, the slow reduction in
non-performing loans could lead to a
more prolonged period of tight credit
conditions, which would dampen the
recovery.
With regards to the primary balance
of the general government, the
European Commission expects it to
improve further, reaching a surplus
of 2,3% of GDP. However, there are
also additional factors beyond the
control of the government weighing
on the revenue, notably new location
rules regarding VAT on e-commerce
services and a decrease in dividend